DEFECTIONS IN A SEASON OF HARDSHIP: WHY NIGERIA’S POLITICAL TSUNAMI IS NOT WHAT IT SEEMS

At first glance, the mass and unrelenting wave of defections into the All Progressives Congress (APC) might appear to be a testament to the ruling party’s growing authority and widespread public approval. The optics suggest a triumphant political machine – one so effective, so inspiring, that Nigerians are flocking to its fold in admiration and confidence.

But this glossy narrative collapses the moment one scratches beneath the surface.

What we are witnessing is not the magnetism of good governance, nor is it a vote of confidence in the ruling party’s stewardship of national affairs. Rather, it is the desperate choreography of a population squeezed by unyielding economic hardship – citizens and politicians alike seeking shelter wherever power seems most concentrated, and survival most assured.

In an era where the cost of living has soared beyond the reach of ordinary households, where hope thins daily under the weight of inflation, joblessness, and insecurity, political affiliation has become less about ideology and more about endurance. The defections are not driven by conviction; they are driven by fear of exclusion in a system where proximity to the ruling class is increasingly seen as the last available insurance policy.

Many of those decamping are not celebrating the APC’s successes; they are attempting to escape the harsh winds battering the nation’s socio-economic landscape. They are aligning with President Tinubu and his circle of relatively insulated survivors—individuals who seem, at least outwardly, better positioned to weather the storm. This instinctive gravitation is less political strategy and more a reflection of the primal urge for self-preservation.

Thus, the defections sweeping across the country are not signs of national satisfaction. They are sirens warning of a populace grappling with profound hardship, and a political elite scrambling for relevance in uncertain times.

Nigeria’s leaders must resist the temptation to mistake these movements for accolades. A frightened crowd running toward a fortress does not mean they believe the fortress is righteous – only that it appears safer than the battlefield outside.

Until the nation confronts its underlying crises – economic, social, and moral – the defections will continue, but so will the suffering that fuels them.***